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Howard Leaman                                                     Dec 13/17


Canola has traded on both sides of unchanged in overnight action, but the
bias is clearly to the downside. Palm oil and European rapeseed are lower
this morning, while the soy complex is mixed to firmer. The Canadian dollar
is holding steady against the U.S. dollar. There is talk that U.S. interest
rates could be raised today, which could lead to weakness in the Canadian
dollar and subsequently a firmer tone in canola.

BULL SIDE                               BEAR SIDE
1) There continues to be some concern   1) Though there are areas of 
around dry conditions in key Argentine  concern, South American crop 
soy growing areas. There are forecasts  conditions are generally 
calling for rain, but not enough to     favourable.           
completely ease the weather concerns.   2) Yesterday's USDA report was seen
2) Technically, the selling in canola   as slightly bearish for canola as 
is starting to look overdone, and the   it projected increases in both     
market could show some bounce today.    Canadian canola and U.S. soy ending
3) If the Canadian dollar weakens as    stocks.  
some expect, it will be supportive for  3) Canola could see spillover 
canola.                                 selling from other veg. oils.

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