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Howard Leaman                                                     Sep 18/18


Canola has been mainly on the defensive in overnight action. Palm oil,
European rapeseed and the soy complex are all on the defensive this
morning. The Canadian dollar is up about fifteen one-hundreds of a cent
against the U.S. dollar. Trading in canola could be choppy today ahead of
tomorrow's Stats Can production report. There is, however, some question
about the accuracy of the estimate and just how much impact it will have on
the market.  

BULL SIDE                               BEAR SIDE
1) Less than favourable weather in      1) U.S. soy conditions are 
parts of western Canada is delaying     generally favourable, and record   
the harvest and threatening the         large production is expected.
quality of the canola crop.             2) Canola remains very expensive 
2) Canola is struggling to hold above   relative to soy.            
support on the price charts and the     3) The technical bias in canola has 
market could bounce ahead of            shifted to the downside.
Wednesday's Stats Can production        4) U.S./Chinese trade tension is  
report.                                 heating up.             
3) Traders are turning their attention  4) Harvest pressure is building as
to the prospects for the South          North American crops move onto the
American soy crop, and are apt to add   market.
some weather premium to prices.         5) Key South American crop areas
                                        have received beneficial rain.

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