Howard Leaman Sep 18/18
MIXED TO LOWER
Canola has been mainly on the defensive in overnight action. Palm oil,
European rapeseed and the soy complex are all on the defensive this
morning. The Canadian dollar is up about fifteen one-hundreds of a cent
against the U.S. dollar. Trading in canola could be choppy today ahead of
tomorrow's Stats Can production report. There is, however, some question
about the accuracy of the estimate and just how much impact it will have on
BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1) Less than favourable weather in 1) U.S. soy conditions are
parts of western Canada is delaying generally favourable, and record
the harvest and threatening the large production is expected.
quality of the canola crop. 2) Canola remains very expensive
2) Canola is struggling to hold above relative to soy.
support on the price charts and the 3) The technical bias in canola has
market could bounce ahead of shifted to the downside.
Wednesday's Stats Can production 4) U.S./Chinese trade tension is
report. heating up.
3) Traders are turning their attention 4) Harvest pressure is building as
to the prospects for the South North American crops move onto the
American soy crop, and are apt to add market.
some weather premium to prices. 5) Key South American crop areas
have received beneficial rain.
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